OPEC+ is expected to keep its oil production policy unchanged for October when seven key members meet online on Sunday, according to three sources familiar with the discussions. The decision would come as the group completes the rollback of one layer of supply cuts and shifts its attention toward determining production baselines for 2027.
The meeting takes place against a difficult backdrop for the global oil market. The war involving Iran has disrupted crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important energy shipping routes, while the war in Ukraine continues to affect flows from Russia and Kazakhstan. Those disruptions have made it harder for OPEC+ to translate planned production changes into actual barrels reaching the market.
The result is a different operating environment from previous years. OPEC+ remains one of the world's most important oil producer groups, but its formal decisions on supply are having a more limited effect on prices and market share because geopolitical disruptions are now playing such a large role in determining how much oil reaches consumers.
Seven producers to make the decision
Sunday's online meeting will bring together Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. These seven countries have been responsible for a series of monthly production increases during most of this year as OPEC+ gradually unwinds earlier supply restrictions.
Two of the sources said the meeting is expected to begin at 1100 GMT.
The group includes some of the world's largest oil producers. Saudi Arabia is the dominant producer within OPEC, while Russia is the most important non OPEC member of the wider alliance. Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman also play significant roles in the group's production policy.
OPEC+ brings together the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers, including Russia. Neither OPEC, Saudi Arabia nor Russia immediately responded to requests for comment.
The expected decision to hold the October policy unchanged would mark another step in the group's gradual approach to restoring supply that was previously taken off the market.
One layer of cuts is being unwound
The production increase agreed in early August completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrel per day cut that OPEC+ first introduced in 2023.
At the time, the group included the United Arab Emirates. The UAE subsequently left OPEC in May, after years of tensions over how its production capacity was reflected in its assigned quota.
OPEC+ has been carefully managing the return of those barrels, increasing planned output in stages rather than bringing the entire volume back at once. The approach was designed to give producers greater control over supply while allowing the market to absorb additional crude.
Yet the official quota figures do not tell the whole story.
Actual production has generally fallen short of the levels permitted by the group's latest plans. Disruptions linked to the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have affected exports from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan, limiting the amount of crude that producers can bring to international buyers even when higher quotas are available.
That gap between permitted production and actual supply has become increasingly important for traders and analysts assessing the market.
A higher quota does not automatically mean an equivalent increase in global oil supplies. Export infrastructure, shipping routes, sanctions, security risks and production constraints can all prevent producers from reaching their official targets.
Another layer of cuts remains
Although OPEC+ is completing the rollback of one set of reductions, the group has not returned all of its withheld production to the market.
Another layer of cuts remains in place for most members of the 21 country alliance through the end of 2026. The future of those restrictions will depend partly on how the market develops and on negotiations over the production capacity of individual members.
Those negotiations are already beginning to take shape.
OPEC+ is reviewing the oil production capacity of its members to establish new baselines for 2027. These baselines are important because they form the reference point from which individual production quotas are calculated.
For producers that have invested heavily in new fields and infrastructure, securing recognition of higher capacity can translate into permission to produce more oil.
For other members, granting larger quotas to some countries could create pressure to increase their own production allowances.
Capacity review could trigger difficult talks
Texas based consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton is conducting the capacity review for most OPEC+ members. One of the sources said the company is expected to submit its report to OPEC by the end of September.
The findings could set the stage for difficult negotiations before OPEC+ agrees on new production baselines at its year end meeting.
The issue is particularly sensitive because several producers argue that their official quotas no longer reflect what they can actually produce.
Iraq is among the countries that has pushed for a higher quota based on increased production capacity. Baghdad has long sought greater room to increase output as it develops its oil resources, although its production has also been affected by political, technical and export constraints.
The UAE's departure from OPEC provides another indication of how contentious the issue can become. The country had argued that its assigned production level did not adequately reflect its growing capacity.
The disagreement was not simply about the number of barrels a country could produce. For oil producing nations, a higher recognised capacity can provide greater room to expand output and capture additional revenue when market conditions permit.
Geopolitical disruptions complicate OPEC+ strategy
The group's ability to manage supply has also been complicated by the continuing conflict involving Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz is a major route for oil shipments from the Gulf, and disruptions there can affect global crude flows regardless of the production policy agreed by OPEC+.
That reduces the influence of quota decisions. Even if the group agrees to raise or lower planned production, actual exports can move differently because of security risks and disruptions to shipping.
The war in Ukraine has produced another set of complications. Russia remains a major oil producer and exporter, while Kazakhstan also depends on regional infrastructure to move crude to international markets. Disruptions affecting those flows can alter the supply picture independently of decisions made at OPEC+ meetings.
For the producer alliance, that makes managing the market more difficult than simply adjusting a production target.
The group must account for what producers are allowed to pump, what they can physically produce and what they can actually export.
Pressure for higher quotas is growing
The forthcoming capacity review could therefore become one of the most closely watched stages in the group's production policy.
Countries that have expanded their ability to produce oil will want their new capacity reflected in the figures used to calculate future quotas. Countries with less spare capacity may have different priorities, particularly if they are concerned about losing market share.
Iraq's position illustrates the pressure building inside the alliance. The country has sought higher production allowances to reflect increased capacity, putting the question of future baselines firmly on the agenda.
The UAE's decision to leave OPEC also demonstrates the consequences when a major producer believes the organisation's framework no longer matches its production ambitions.
Another potential change could come from Venezuela. Bloomberg News reported last week that the country is considering leaving OPEC, adding another layer of uncertainty around the organisation's membership and influence.
For now, however, the immediate focus is narrower.
OPEC+ is expected to keep its October policy unchanged while the seven core members meet online Sunday. The move would allow the group to complete the current phase of supply adjustments without introducing another major policy change at a time when wars and shipping disruptions are already distorting global oil flows.
The more difficult debate is likely to come later, when the capacity review is completed and producers begin bargaining over the production baselines that will determine quotas from 2027.
The report from DeGolyer and MacNaughton, expected at the end of September, will provide the numbers around which those negotiations are likely to revolve. For countries seeking permission to pump more, those figures could determine how much additional oil they are allowed to bring to market in the years ahead.